Leveraging the Green Bubble - Opportunities in Renewable Energy

Leveraging the Green Bubble Opportunities in Renewable Energy Presentation Thomas Brand October 2009 Green opportunities – business and technology Green world = ways for CO2 reduction & renewable energy consumptions, E-Mobility and energy efficiency – commitments are clearly expressed … Political commitments Area Articulated Target Comment Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20% reduction by 2020 Could be up to 30% EU Renewable Energy 20% of consumption in Not just electricity 2020 EU Emission Trading Scheme 21 % reduction in 2020 Increase in auctioning, more EU gases/sectors Non ETS sector 10% reduction in 2020 In CO2 emissions Biofuels 10% of transport fuels Must be sustainable in 2020 US Renewables Energy 25% of consumption in Just started - complete US Production 2025 mind change required China become world leader in No specific target Depends on developed CN implementation of renewables countries Source: LECG 2008; PA Consulting Research © PA Knowledge Limited 2008. PA - Leveraging the green bubble Page 2 Green opportunities – business and technology Especially when seeing optimistic scenarios on Wind, Biomass, Solar and Hydro energy sources – Will these growth opportunities be there ? OECD market forecast scenario energy deployment in the electricity sector in TWh/a Energy [R]evolution Scenario , OECD Europe 6.000 Efficiency 5.000 Import RES Ocean Energy Solar Thermal 4.000 Photovoltaic PV A more TWh/a Geothermal optimistic scenario 3.000 Wind Hydro Biomass 2.000 CHP fossil Gas&oil 1.000 Coal Nuclear 0 2003 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 80% Renewable Energy Source electricity Source: OECD, DLR © PA Knowledge Limited 2008. PA - Leveraging the green bubble Page 3 Green opportunities – business and technology Different renewable energy technologies are at different stages of maturity in the market place Maturity stages of renewable energy technologies Emerging Growth Maturity Decline On-shore Wind Hydro Bio-mass E-Mobility PV Solar Off-shore Solar Stirling Bio Wind Trough engine fuels CSP1) CSP1) direct to steam thermal storage Tide& Geo- Wave thermal • Push technology • Manage growth • Manage cost efficiency • Innovation development • Manage technology • Manage overall yield management • Push general efficiency stability and and availability/stability • Manage end of life- • Build up supply chains industrialisation • Manage economies of cycle • Build business models • Push first upgrades scale • Manage globalisation • Push technology 1) Concentrated Solar Power (includes various technologies) innovation © PA Knowledge Limited 2008. PA - Leveraging the green bubble Page 4 Green opportunities – business and technology Solar technologies predict high spend but need to deliver the toughest challenge to reduce cumulative actual cost by 2020 Investment p.a. in bn US$ and cost reduction challenge by technology Av. p.a. investment by technology 2009-2030 in bn US$ Exp. cost reduction of ct/kW by 2020 Wind 15 30% (offshore) Wind 74 Key expansion in: 20% (onshore) • Spain • Germany • USA Water 28 • South-Korea 10% • Japan (Hydropower) • Dubai Solar (PV) 141 50% Vague prediction CSP1) 10 - big upside 50% Bio mass 21 15% Biofuel (Fischer 28 30% Tropsch) 1) Concentrated Solar Power (includes various technologies) Source: New Energy Finance Global Futures 2009, United Nations Economic and Social Council, EPIA Report 2013, PA Consulting Research © PA Knowledge Limited 2008.